To Bayes or Not to Bayes

Prob. Methods in Geotech.

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Welcome to Probabilistic Methods in Geotechnical Engineering course web site. The purpose of this web is to enhance the support services we provide to  students.  I've provided a number of resources here to help you learn, resolve problems, and suggest improvements to our course.

You may also obtain technical support by telephone at 31574; and by e-mail to


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Course Objective   

Establish the basic understanding of probability theory.  Compares deterministic and probabilistic approaches to the action and reaction of structures of, on, or in soil when subjected to loadings. Consider uncertainties in material parameters and their effect on designs. Stability is assessed in terms of reliability as well as customary factors of safety.  Inverse problems arising from experimental study is solved by probabilistic estimation theory.  Other data analysis (e.g. model selection and experimental design) may also be discussed.

 Course Content:

·        Mathematical Fundamental of Probabilistic Theory

·        Random Variables & Stochastic Processes

·        Statistical Mechanics

·        Reliability Analysis

·        Data Analysis (Estimation, Model Selection, Experimental Design)


Grading:  Homework(30%), Mid-term (40%), Final Project (30%)




2.  Mechanics of Particulate Media, Harr (1977)

3.  Reliability-Based Design in Civil Engineering, Harr (1987)

4.  Data Analysis -- A Bayesian Tutorial, Sivia (1996)

5.  Probability Concepts in Engineering Planning and Design

Vol. 1 Basic Principle, Ang and Tang (1975)

Vol. 2 Decision, Risk, and Reliability (1984)

5. Probability, Reliability, & Statistical Methods in Engineering Design, Haldar (2000)

6. Statistics, Probability, and Reliability for Civil and Environmental Engineers, Kottegoda

and Rosso (1998)


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Last modified: 星期三 四月 28, 2004.